Coronavirus.



  • @zBrown World population in 1918 was almost exactly 1/4 what it is today. So an epidemic of equal severity now would kill 200 million worldwide.

    US population then was about a third of what it is now, so the equivalent of 650,000 deaths then would be about 2 million now.



  • @David-Harris said in Coronavirus.:

    @zBrown World population in 1918 was almost exactly 1/4 what it is today. So an epidemic of equal severity now would kill 200 million worldwide.

    US population then was about a third of what it is now, so the equivalent of 650,000 deaths then would be about 2 million now.

    This prognostication presumes a linear extrapolation. Hmmm.... Been quite some while but based on my knowledge of mathematical ecology, I would expect it to be exponential. 🤔



  • @toby said in Coronavirus.:

    Been quite some while but based on my knowledge of mathematical ecology, I would expect it to be exponential.

    Hmmm. Doesn't seem so to me. In fact, if anything, I'd expect the opposite. Why? Two big reasons: First, in 1918, the world was in a totally shattered state. The war that ended that year had devastated the world economy and devastated the overall health of a significant share of the world's population. Easy pickings for a virus.

    Second, medical knowledge, and the ability of the world to mount a significant medical response to that epidemic, was primitive compared to today.

    All speculation of course, but I do think we are in a much better position to deal with something like this than we were 100 years ago.

    Edit to add: None of which is to minimize the severity of the current situation, or to suggest that we should all just relax and everything will be fine.



  • Meanwhile

    White House told federal health agency to classify coronavirus deliberations, sources say

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/white-house-told-federal-health-agency-to-classify-coronavirus-deliberations-sources-say.html



  • From NYT

    recovery

    And contrary to one Mr Toby's suggestion, " Hence why we don't typically bother citing biased sources lacking subject matter expertise. 😉 " as to what I (we) post regarding coronovirus:

    pundits

    I find deconstructing seemingly well written "yellow journalism" part of a larger mental process of gaining understanding of how some try to manipulate others. But there is so much of this out there that to dwell on very much of it would be a waste of my time.

    Again the Republican Takeaway

    If you had not read the other 3 articles I posted first you might not have had the ammo to correctly confront this NYP editorial. Just from its title we have to ask ," How soon is 'soon'?" The article makes reference to parts of the Chinese study (the decline of Corvid 19)) but totally fails to make use what is currently happening -- The ballooning of cases in Italy. The tactic Micheal Fumento used was to expand a bit of simple data and make a story of the data and conclusions that fit his intended story line while IGNORING the rest of what was happening that did not fit his story line.





  • ZBrown: That's scary schist on your link:
    "So how has the United States' response been?"

    "Our response is much, much worse than almost any other country that's been affected," Jha says.



  • `zbrown,

    Thanks. Takeaway link is fixed.



  • @FritzRay

    Meanwhile today

    Pence says Trump administration clearing 'red tape' to make more coronavirus tests available



  • zBrown! Of course, the problem is, per your earlier link: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/12/814522489/singapore-wins-praise-for-its-covid-19-strategy-the-u-s-does-not

    If they start testing more people, it will likely show far more cases of coronavirus, & that is not good for our beloved President.



  • More news is popping up about how woeful the U.S. testing for coronavirus has been.

    I sniped this:

    virus testing 2.JPG

    From this article, which also talks about the folks doing a well-funded flu study in Seattle, who asked permission from the Feds to also test their nasal swabs for coronavirus. They were repeatedly refused permission to do so.

    https://news.yahoo.com/seattle-research-project-reportedly-told-054454452.html





  • Idaho has been one of the very-few states without a case, or multiple cases, of Coronavirus. That ended today. A Boise woman in her 50's, who returned from a business conference in NYC in early March, had mild symptoms & managed to get tested. She is in "self-quarantine" at home. Idaho medical professionals expect many more cases, not necessarily related to this one.



  • @FritzRay said in Coronavirus.:

    Idaho has been one of the very-few states without a case, or multiple cases, of Coronavirus. That ended today. A Boise woman in her 50's, who returned from a business conference in NYC in early March, had mild symptoms & managed to get tested. She is in "self-quarantine" at home. Idaho medical professionals expect many more cases, not necessarily related to this one.

    To quote Forest Gump: "Stupid is as stupid does.".

    Uhhh.... lemme see if I can get this logic figured: Let's go to a business conference, likely at some venue which packs folks in like sardines, in one of the two major hot spots of the pandemic in the country: NYC.

    My wife is sick. Stayed home all day long yesterday. If you knew her you'd know that she's damn hard core MT girl when it comes to staying home to nurse a cold or flu so it was really, really bad. Likely kill a horse. She called local hospital last night and was informed there was "No Corona Virus in Idaho. Have you traveled to a risk zone?". Nope. Okay, end of any concern.

    She has not. One of her clients, however, is a real estate brokerage. Folks are moving to Idaho in droves (house kitty corner from us was on the market three or four days - had to cancel the Saturday open house cuz it sold so fast.)! Buttloads of agents at that brokerage parading LOTS of out of state visitors thru the office.

    Stellar logic there: just because there are no cases NOW can be extrapolated to no cases EVER?!! I said: "Just wait, I'll bet it hits ID before the weekend is out. Less than 24 hours later...

    These folks are dumb as a post or just plain stupid! Put the goddamn party politics aside and quite playing Ostrich!! Pick up an introductory primer on Population Biology (e.g. Wilson & Bossert) or community ecology and you will gain some insights as to why I was able to post this fourteen days ago with a high degree of confidence:

    @toby said in Coronavirus.:

    @FritzRay No question of if. Only ones of when and how bad.

    On a more positive and less irascible note: I don't think she has Covid-19 as she was puking her guts out and while that IS a symptom (in addition to the respiratory and fever aspects - local health "professionals" were wrong), it is less typical. So fingers crossed. 🤞



  • @toby With all the unknowns, it's very scary to have any sort of flulike symptom. My sister has 1 more day in her self-quarantine after being in WA when the virus adopted there(not in the same county but not all that far away). She told me she got pukey sick on day 5, pretty bad, but 2 days later felt better, though she's been getting some residual feelings of it since then.



  • This is something I never heard of - Viral infection history

    It is a 2015 development

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn27659-cheap-blood-test-reveals-every-virus-youve-ever-been-exposed-to/

    Still being utilized in 2019

    https://www.pnas.org/content/116/22/10899

    And a summary therapeutic/prophylactic agents

    Abstract
    Last decade witnessed the outbreak of many life-threatening human pathogens including Nipah, Ebola, Chikungunya, Zika, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), Severe Acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and more recently novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV or SARS-CoV-2). The disease condition associated with novel coronavirus, referred to as Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The emergence of novel coronavirus in 2019 in Wuhan, China marked the third highly pathogenic coronavirus infecting humans in the 21st century.

    The continuing emergence of coronaviruses at regular intervals poses a significant threat to human health and economy. Ironically, even after a decade of research on coronavirus, still there are no licensed vaccines or therapeutic agents to treat coronavirus infection which highlights an urgent need to develop effective vaccines or post-exposure prophylaxis to prevent future epidemics.

    Several clinical, genetic and epidemiological features of COVID-19 resemble SARS-CoV infection. Hence, the research advancements on SARS-CoV treatment might help scientific community in quick understanding of this virus pathogenesis and develop effective therapeutic/prophylactic agents to treat and prevent this infection. Monoclonal antibodies represent the major class of biotherapeutics for passive immunotherapy to fight against viral infection. The therapeutic potential of monoclonal antibodies has been well recognized in the treatment of many diseases. Here, we summarize the potential monoclonal antibody based therapeutic intervention for COVID-19 by considering the existing knowledge on the neutralizing monoclonal antibodies against similar coronaviruses SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Further research on COVID-19 pathogenesis could identify appropriate therapeutic targets to develop specific anti-virals against this newly emerging pathogen.
    PMID: 32134278 DOI: 10.12932/AP-200220-0773



  • I've seen several recent photos of long-lines outside South Idaho Costcos.

    We have been incredibly profligate with toilet paper. It appears Heidi & I go through a roll every two days. Just did an inventory, & at that rate, we only have enough for the next 66 days. We had a meeting & decided from now on, it's one square of tp only, & we will use both sides too.



  • Stinky & stingy, one sheet, be sure to wash your fingers & hands and then scent 'me. Gross

    While at the neighbors ranch we used Montgomery Ward catalogue paper -- there was no TP.

    You could cut some old socks in half -- use 'em for wiping -- wash 'em and reuse 'em like mothers do with cloth diapers?



  • old telephone books?
    I knew they would be good for something

    Bidet

    Fast

    Just don't play paper, scissors, rock for keeps

    And be creative

    IMG_3824.JPG



  • @FritzRay said in Coronavirus.:

    I've seen several recent photos of long-lines outside South Idaho Costcos.

    We have been incredibly profligate with toilet paper. It appears Heidi & I go through a roll every two days. Just did an inventory, & at that rate, we only have enough for the next 66 days. We had a meeting & decided from now on, it's one square of tp only, & we will use both sides too.

    No, no, no!!!! Silly goose! Your technique is all wrong. Infantile and inexperienced, ye' must be. 🙄

    But you had at least one part correct: the single square (incidentally, most TP sheets are not square, only close). Now listen up whilst I educate y'all on optimal technique using only that one square (cuz I grew up we was so poor that one sheet was all ya' got.). Kind of a complex, multi-step process, but I am an old dog and think I've figured it pretty good thru trial and error. Soooo...... Geronimo, w/o further adieu, here ya' go:

    1. Fold that TP into quarters. For the challenged, that's two perpendicular folds in half.
    2. Now find the corner that formerly was the middle.
    3. Tear small corner from that corner.
    4. Unfold TP sheet. There should be a small hole in the middle of the sheet.
    5. Insert finger thru hole.
    6. Clean rectum.
    7. Use TP to clean finger as you remover from finger.

    Handy, dandy seven step process!

    Note: Of course you may well want to wash your hands. Or just make sure you always use your left, and then only use your right to eat, touch face, shake hands and everything else. 👍


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