Coronavirus.



  • @David-Harris I had not considered the possibility of becoming a "Typhoid Mary"

    Which brings us full circle I guess



  • its starting to look a lot like the CDC folks have cried wolf on this one? nasty assed flu just like every year....



  • Wowzers.

    A few things:

    1. Full disclosure: My sister works on the Cardiac Ward, not the Virology Department. I reached out to her because I knew she would have been briefed on this stuff by folks who have access to the latest and greatest info. I don't know any virologists so she was my next best go to on this one.

    2. We need to ensure we distinguish between what commonly gets labeled by lay folks as "the cold/flu" and the actual Influenza virus. If you've ever had a verified case of Influenza then you know they're non trivial "inconveniences".

    3. Flu shots, at least at this time, are far from magic bullets and can have negative health impacts in some (rare?) instances.

    4. I, too, have a few biology courses on my college transcripts. That was decades ago and a lot has changed since then w.r.t. knowledge and understanding of such things. I don't claim any expertise but it does provide some foundation to understand this stuff perhaps a bit better the average bear. I am older and less fit than when I had Influenza A and have no desire to repeat anything like that again.

    5. My sis gets her health care from a leading research hospital. I get what passes as such from local yokels. So yeah, I am taking this pretty seriously.



  • @NickG said in Coronavirus.:

    its starting to look a lot like the CDC folks have cried wolf on this one? nasty assed flu just like every year....

    I'm wondering why you feel this way. Could you offer some links to places where you're getting information to base this on?

    One of the things I keep coming back to is the vulnerability of our aged people, and those with cancer & other immune-weakened systems. I follow @DrDenaGrayson on Twitter, who is painting a picture exactly the opposite of over-reaction. While she is extremely anti-DT(I wish she would not include that opinion and stick with information), she has pretty good documentIon and credentials.



  • @Happiegrrrl the flu virus sucks really bad. I have had it at least twice. The Last time was 2018. Out of work for 2 weeks and so weak and diisorintated when I returned to work that I fell and got hurt. My point being that we don't have all the hoopla over the flu virus which happens every year. Covid 19 is starting to look no worse than flu . yes it really sucks but it also is not even close to the death rate that they were talking about in the beginning. Flu virus has already killed 20k Americans this year with zero press coverage and quareenteens. So yes they have created a situation with a lot of panic and hoopla that will eventually fizzle out and the next time something more serious comes around people will not believe them. All the construction workers that I work with already think it's a bunch of shit so they come to work sick anyways.



  • I was wondering

    HOW IT CAN KILL YA {all? acute viral infection}

    "The specific effects of COVID-19 on the cardiovascular system remain unclear, though there have been reports of acute cardiac injury, arrhythmias, hypotension, tachycardia, and a high proportion of concomitant cardiovascular disease in infected individuals, particularly those who require more intensive care."

    However.

    "Acute viral infections have three categories of short-term effects on the cardiovascular system:

    First, increased risk of acute coronary syndromes associated with the severe inflammatory response to the infection.
    Second, myocardial depression leading to heart failure.
    Third, under-recognized risk of arrhythmias, also related to acute inflammation.
    "It's really just a very toxic environment as far as the heart is concerned," says Madjid, who has been seducing the impact of influenza on heart patients for more than 20 years.

    "Along with these other things, almost all of these patients get pneumonia, and many also get renal failure or bacteremia. And, unfortunately many critical patients develop acute respiratory distress syndrome…all of which are deleterious to the cardiovascular system," he adds."

    Cronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Provides Potent Reminder of the Risk of Infectious Agents.

    https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/articles/2020/03/01/08/42/feature-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-provides-potent-reminder-of-the-risk-of-infectious-agents



  • @NickG said in Coronavirus.:

    @Happiegrrrl the flu virus sucks really bad. I have had it at least twice. The Last time was 2018. Out of work for 2 weeks and so weak and diisorintated when I returned to work that I fell and got hurt. My point being that we don't have all the hoopla over the flu virus which happens every year. Covid 19 is starting to look no worse than flu . yes it really sucks but it also is not even close to the death rate that they were talking about in the beginning. Flu virus has already killed 20k Americans this year with zero press coverage and quareenteens. So yes they have created a situation with a lot of panic and hoopla that will eventually fizzle out and the next time something more serious comes around people will not believe them. All the construction workers that I work with already think it's a bunch of shit so they come to work sick anyways.

    From a strictly selfish perspective this may be an optimal strategy, depending on the incidence of Covid-19 in your area. Depending:

    1. If their symptoms are common "cold/flu" then they're probably okay getting by masking symptoms via over the counter medications, showing up for work to keep the money machine running, and risk infecting everyone else they come in contact with.

    2. If, however, they're symptoms are actual Covid-19, then even from selfish perspective they are doing themselves more harm than good in the long run by ignoring the symptoms and thereby increasing likelihood of being sick longer, resulting in far greater cost from lost wages and expensive medical attention. As you've pointed out: it was 2 weeks for you but then you were pretty much still useless when you did go back. For me it was three to four weeks (but I'd also been prescribed some drugs I was allergic to). I remember it well. Cost me $4K in lost wages and almost cost me my job.

    Be all that as it may, I suspect you are partly correct w/the hoopla angle. We've got the 24x7 "news" stream these days and the talking bobble heads need to have something to talk about. Hearst style "yellow journalism" is rampant. Covid-19 is NEW and newsworthy so of course those of that ilk are going to spin things one way or another catering to their respective audience's hive mind. I've tried to disregard all that and only post links from sources that should be able to withstand the rigors of scientific examination.

    Note: Above analysis from a bit of a simple game theory slant and not intended to advocate for selfish options. Moreover, even then there are many additional considerations for the selfish individual than strictly bottom line dollars.



  • @NickG Recall though that COVID-19 has only been identified in December, 2019. There is no vaccine. The articles mentioned by David Harris above detail the scenarios by which very rapid spread is possible.



  • @zBrown said in Coronavirus.:

    @NickG Recall though that COVID-19 has only been identified in December, 2019. There is no vaccine. The articles mentione by David Harris above detail the scenarios by which very rapid expansion is possible.

    Unfortunately I do not have a subscription to the Economist. Good publication though so I expect them to be reasonably well researched and written.

    Otherwise, this thread contains some good science based links. A bit of a technical wade but maybe worthy of a revisit for those interested in knowing more about such things.

    Thanks to @zBrown for posting several of those up. đź‘Ť





  • Well truth stranger than fiction

    I did not even realize OJ was out of prison

    Since joining Twitter in June 2019, he has racked up nearly a million followers.

    https://nypost.com/2020/03/07/o-j-simpson-stocks-up-on-supplies-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/



  • I'm kind of dumbfounded with the no biggie and media overhype crowd, I have to say....

    For one thing, media as near as ignored the issue until last week, when it had already been spreading here for at least six weeks.

    I have been following the issue for about six weeks, when it was pretty much China alone and people were telling stories of entire building blocks being quarantined, if someone there had it.

    I guess we're going to see what happens, but dang, I'm going To take my own protective measures. Until today my concern was that I might get it from someone who didn't realize they'd acquired it, and then do the same, passing it to someone vulnerable who could die.

    Now I realize I have to actually defend myself FROM those who have zero intentions of taking even the most simple of precautions....

    My county in NY has its 1st "presumed positive" case. The person had been to France and contracted it there or in travel back. Luckily NY had recently set up protocol. The person called 911 to advise symptoms, was told to drive to hospital and WAIT to be met. Workers in protective gear escorted them through an isolation entry into the hospital.

    Today, the local senior residential community (has everything from pre-assusted living apartments through end of life in-home care) has announced restrictions of NO VISITORS including private health aides for at least the next several weeks.

    That's not due to media feeding frenzy. It's due to facts and science.



  • Just saying that with all the hype we still have a situation where 99% of blue collar workers can't afford to take a day off or get a test. I don't like working with sick people but the reality is that if I walk off the job and go home because one of my coworkers is sick I will end up looking like the asshole. Too much hype and not enough real practical education and actual affordability. Too many stupid people in the world. I do think that if this doesn't end up killing a real shit ton of people the CDC bunch will lose most of whatever credibility they have with the common people. That will completely doom us if something comes along with a real 10% or better kill rate. You are only as safe as your weakest most under insured link.



  • Happie you are absolutely correct. we are at the mercy of the dumbest people in our mix. Today at work one of my co workers was saying that he was worried because his GF works in a grocery store in a town with an outbreak thanks to a dub assed Doctor who broke isolation and went to a party with flue like symptoms after coming home from Italy. Anways this kids GF has a cough and the he was coughing so I gave him a mask. tells me he already has one ( not wearing) and puts the mask I gave him back in the box after touching it... Can't fix stupid. same jobsite dude not on our crew is bragging about how sick he is and he just came from visiting his family in a town with a known outbreak. Then up north at my sisters and where Isa lives some bonehead stops by my sisters farm to tell her that he is in forced isolation because his kid just came back from a school trip in Italy. We live in a country dumb enough to let the Russians put a puppet in our white house . We have to expect this shit. It's the norm not the exception. PS when I get sick I get really sick so yes I am concerned and washing my hands 20 times a day but still feel like its beyond my control...



  • so if you are going to get it do it now while they can still care for you and before all the healthcare workers get overwhelmed and sick.



  • Leaving aside infecting other people for now

    Caveats: small study and speculative

    "A small study out of China suggests that the new coronavirus can persist in the body for at least two weeks after symptoms of the disease clear up.

    This sort of persistence isn't unheard of among viruses, experts told Live Science, and thankfully, the patients are most likely not very contagious in the post-symptom period. The findings may even be good news, said Krys Johnson, an epidemiologist at Temple University's College of Public Health. The viruses that tend to hang around in people's systems also tend to be the viruses that the body develops a strong immune response against.

    "If the virus is staying in people's systems, then they may not be able to be reinfected," Johnson told Live Science. "



  • The[The number of COVID-19 coronavirus cases worldwide reached over 98,600 on Friday, including 233 in the U.S., where 12 people have died. Germany's health minister called the outbreak, which has spread to at least 84 countries, a "global pandemic."

    Along with the global rise in infections and deaths is an increase in recoveries—more than 55,000 people have recovered from the disease as of Friday. While those recoveries are welcome news for a world on edge, public health officials in China and Japan have reported cases in which patients see their symptoms subside and are discharged from hospitals—only to test positive for the coronavirus again.
    On March 2, a man in Wuhan, China, with COVID-19 died after being readmitted to the hospital two days after he was discharged, according to a Chinese news site.]

    March 6, 2020 Fortune article



  • so how many people died of the flue today? keeping things in perspective is not a bad thing.



  • There are many aspects one must consider when analyzing a sticky wicket such as this. Thus far I have focused mostly on the scientific side as one needs to make a best faith effort to get to grips of what they are dealing with before going off half cocked w.r.t. other aspects.

    Now that we do have a clue or two in that realm, we can intelligently discuss ethical issues, selfish versus altrusitic behavior, civic responsibility, etc. But before we do let us summarize: Risk of death and/or negative wellness impact is correlated to age and comorbidities, immunosuppressed, etc.

    So if you're not in one of those higher risk groups you are indeed likely pretty safe being an asshat, statistical probability wise. But I would discourage such by reminding such asshats:

    1. The only alternative to getting old is dying young - Nobody gets out of life alive.
    2. What comes around, goes around. See #1 above. Are you sure this is the precedent you want to set?

    My take is that we ALL bear a civic responsibility to the group at large as members of a civilized society. Hence, it's pretty much a no brainer that you stay home and rest up when you're sick (common cold included) and not out and about infecting the population at large. One may hope for reciprocal consideration. Sadly, such is not always the case as there will always be "cheaters". Be that as it may, that is them, you are you and only you control and bear responsibility for your behavior.

    The sick leave and paid time off aspects are the immediate deterrent to the more altruistic path. And therein lies the rub: worst health care and other so called "entitlement" benefits of pretty much any first world nation. But that is a whole 'nother Big Q can of worms. Regardless, it is still the burden of each of us, as members of the group who benefit from the group, to once in a while take one for the group. Works for the U.S. 100% Volunteer Army. Seems to me if folks are willing to die in the mid east for some political b.s. then they ought to also be willing to do the "right thing" w.r.t. Covid-19.

    Okay, goovy. We still got's problems w/yet other asshats who think they're too good, important, and/or otherwise better than everyone else and therefore an exception fully entitled to go to parties and other social gatherings and spread their cooties without fear of rebuke.

    Yep..... Strange days... @zBrown mentioned this was his first pandemic. Mine as well. Should be interesting....



  • @toby said in Coronavirus.:

    @zBrown mentioned this was his first pandemic. Mine as well. Should be interesting....

    Probably the first one for any of us who are less than 102 years old.

    So it's worth learning what we can about earlier ones, as long as we keep in mind that not everything is the same now as it was in 1918, the mid-19th Century, or mid-14th Century.

    Good discussion of the so-called Spanish Flu pandemic here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

    For more on the cholera epidemics/pandemics of the 19th Century, Steven Johnson's "Ghost Map" is a terrific source.

    And the Black Death of the 14th Century is well documented in many places.


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