• Natural thinning of the herd....

  • There is a good analysis of the "death rate" debate in the current issue of The Economist. The gist of it is that it is impossible to determine the death rate of an infectious disease while an epidemic is in progress. Why? Two reasons:

    First, there is no way to determine how many people were infected until a considerable time later. Generally, this number is much higher than it seems during the epidemic, which leads to death rates being revised downward on later analysis.

    Second, there is no way to know how many people alive at the moment will eventually die of their infection. Generally, this number (and hence the death rate) gets revised upward on later analysis.

    The medical and statistical science behind these two opposing issues is fairly clearly explained in the article, which is at: (You made need a subscription to read it.)

    The overall conclusion was that far more people will be infected than a lot of politicians would like you to believe, but that a lower percentage will die than the doomsayers would like you to believe.

  • While true that those most likely to die are the elderly and those with weakened systems.... that's not a big consolation for those with friends, relatives and neighbors who fall into those categories. Shameful that people are minimising this as "don't worry; you probably won't die."

    Right now I would LIKE to see someone from the US admin telling people the simple steps to take to reduce exposure for themselves and others, and tell the truth - that the virus IS out in the wild, and has been for at least six weeks, and that it has a long incubation period where some may show NO symptoms, yet still may pass the virus on.

    Luckily the word IS getting out but still....for the president to suggest people are going to work feeling slightly ill and that's okay because they'll recover....noooooo!

    I am leaving Quartzsite next Thursday. Trying to take care in public spaces to avoid touching things(omg it's hard! Even tapping the POS card readers at stores and gas stations we should be using a stylus instead of finger).

    I'm lucky - strong constitution and young. But if I get the virus I will pass it on to someone who doesn't. That's why I am trying my best to stay safe.

    Also leaving because so many travelers through this town, and I worry if the outbreak gets bad there will be disruption to gas and food availability.

    Will wait to stock on some dry goods till I get to Prescott next week. Hanging there a few days and then to Sedona for a good chunk of time spent hiking and taking it easy before beginning to start east.

  • use disinfectant wipes a lot. after leaveing any store, pumping gas etc.

  • This is complex, but

    In the unprecedented outbreak of a new coronavirus sweeping the world, the germ’s genetic material may ultimately tell the story not just of where it came from, but of how it spread and how efforts to contain it failed.

    By tracking mutations to the virus as it spreads, scientists are creating a family tree in nearly real time, which they say can help pinpoint how the infection is hopping between countries.

    This phylogeny shows evolutionary relationships of HCoV-19 viruses from the ongoing novel coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. All samples are still closely related with few mutations relative to a common ancestor, suggesting a shared common ancestor some time in Nov-Dec 2019. This indicates an initial human infection in Nov-Dec 2019 followed by sustained human-to-human transmission leading to sampled infections.

    Site numbering and genome structure uses Wuhan-Hu-1/2019 as reference. The phylogeny is rooted relative to early samples from Wuhan. Temporal resolution assumes a nucleotide substitution rate of 5 Γ— 10^-4 subs per site per year.

  • How is COVID-19 spread?

    COVID-19 is a respiratory virus, which spread in 3 main ways:

    Between people who are in close contact with each other (within about 6 feet, or 2 metres), through small aerosolized particles that can be produced when a person talks, coughs, or sneezes.
    In (relatively) larger droplets that are produced someone coughs or sneezes (these can travel over similar distances).

    Contact with surfaces or objects infected with the virus (also known as fomites). If a person touches an infected surface and then touches their eyes, nose, or mouth without washing their hands, they may become sick by introducing the virus into their body.

    For COVID-19 there is evidence of transmission in clinically mild and asymptomatic cases. This means that people who are infected with COVID-19 and able to transmit the virus to others may not appear, or even feel, sick.

    Though there is not yet clear evidence on how long the COVID-19 virus can survive on surfaces, we expect it to be similar to other coronaviruses. Coronaviruses can live on surfaces for anywhere from a couple hours to several days, depending on the surface and the climate.

  • any of you smart people have link to reliable sorce for what the symptoms are??? I have seen it on FB but won't call that reliable.

  • @NickG I'm only a dog and unsure about smart people but:


    Here are a couple more links:


    World Healh Organization:

    Caveat Emptor 😜 πŸ•

  • More mathematical modeling to show that the incidence of Covid-19 is significantly under-reported.

  • I reached out to my sister, who is a nurse at a leading research hospital. She responded thusly:

    Covid 19 is a mutation of the already well- known coronavirus. The symptoms are similar to that of the flu or a cold, fever,
    aches, chest congestion. The remedy is the same as well. Rest, fluids, tylenol for fever management. The people that are at
    risk of dying from this are the same people at risk of dying from the flu or any other respiratory illness.... the elderly, infants,
    immunosuppressed people.... people in nursing homes, people with underlying comorbidities or lung conditions (i.e. cystic

    I'm kinda hoping to just GET it so I can build immunity... so if I get it again at age 104 I'll be ok πŸ˜‰

    Take that as one person's view, not medical advice. I am figuring that last bit to be a bit tongue in cheek humor. OTOH, she does have a point.

    Party on, Wayne! πŸ₯ƒ

  • @toby What she said!

    Just as we (us humans) have come to terms with many, many other similar diseases, we will come to terms with this one.

    Think about it. The "flu" kills hundreds of thousands of people worldwide every year. In the US, the CDC estimates that in the current flu season (the five months of October 2019 through February 2020) that at least 31 million Americans have been infected and at least 12,000 have died -- and possibly as many as 30,000.

    And yet neither the US, nor any other country, closes borders, closes schools, cancels sports or tourist events, or runs out of toilet paper and bottled water in grocery stores when flu season hits.

    So, why the panic over this new corona virus and Covid-19?

    As Toby's sister implies, she's probably going to get it, Toby's probably going to get it, I'm probably going to get it, and you are probably going to get it. If we are otherwise healthy, it will probably be similar to the flu, or a cold. If we are not otherwise healthy it is unlikely to be any worse than the flu or a bad cold. Which is to say, yeah, like a lot of other diseases, it might kill you if you are already immunocomprimised, but...

  • I like "whistling in the dark" as much as the next person, but at age 70, I am in the demographics of those who die from Coronavirus.
    Whistle on. I'm avoiding public gatherings, restaurants, airplanes, meetings, & obviously ill people, until this "dies-down."

  • @FritzRay Did you avoid public gatherings, restaurants, airplanes, meetings, & obviously ill people last November when flu hit in full force?

    You may be 70, but if you are otherwise healthy, there is no evidence that you are any more likely to be killed by Covid-19 than by the current round of flu. Or, as far as I can tell, even any more likely to be infected.

  • David: I got a flu shot. I do like to be cautious about worldwide pandemics. I also have a bunch of biology courses in my college background. I confess, since you, Toby, & our beloved President are all telling us this is no big thing, my Bullschist alarms are flashing.

  • I'm going with the better safe than sorry crowd. No offense intended, but the verified experts in virology that I've been following for updates are not minimizing this thing.

  • @FritzRay said in Coronavirus.:

    I got a flu shot. I do like to be cautious about worldwide pandemics. I also have a bunch of biology courses in my college background

    Ditto. Well, except for the flu shot. But there's caution and then there's caution. You, more than most, know this. Your repeated ventures into the mountains, when it is obvious that people who go into the mountains sometimes die, are evidence that you understand (well. unless you're a totally bugfuck crazy who wants to end it all -- which I don't think you are).

    So, yeah, no point in being deliberately stupid, but equally no point in pretending that barring the door will somehow keep you from being exposed to this disease.

    And, to the poster below you who said "No offense intended", well, that's the first thing that people say when they intend offense.

  • From what I have read it seems that those at serious risk are elderly and/or those with compromized immune systems. I am older than Fritz but not as old as Donini, but I am not worried all. If I was still caring for my mother I would be worried and can empathize with folks who may be caring for their own elderly family members and other associates.

    This is the first pandemic I have done any research on. So, what happens when the next mutation is more lethal and less selective in delivering is deleterious effects.

    And, for the conspiratorialists, what would prevent some unsavory group from deliberately spreading the virus, to say, impact the elections in Argentina?

    How did it go

    Cheers, DMT?

  • @David-Harris said in Coronavirus.:

    And, to the poster below you who said "No offense intended", well, that's the first thing that people say when they intend offense.

    The person posted a direct quote from their sister. there's no need for me to be an (*) and make some remark against their opinion. Sure, I could go there; but that WOULD be intending offense. Nobody is going to change their minds based on anything I post. By this time people have had plenty of information to refer to, and that's just what it is.

    However, my nephew is currently on a biologic for his Juvenile Onset Arthritis, and if he contracts the virus, he is almost certain to die. My brother, in Oregon, has a weakened respiratory system due to recurring pneumonia. It's not difficult for me to imagine they are not the only people in the world who are at a very high risk with this virus.

    I would probably get through it fine, except for being unable to stock 3 weeks of water and food to prepare for sequester in case I became ill. But others won't be fine, and the facts known about this virus, in contrast with unverified information being spread, suggest that acting like this is not a very serious issue is going to have people end up dead. Why would a person choose to say "F it?"

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