SKEERED



  • Well I'm mostly in equities, about 25% in hard assets, and maybe 5% in bonds (mostly munies for the tax break), but I have the risk tolerance of somebody who has soloed walls for decades.

    Still having a net worth that has gone up 24% since 2017 urges me to take some money out of the stocks and buy more munies).

    I'm the luckiest guy in the world because I have had a GREAT broker for nearly 20 years. He moved from Merrill Lynch to Morgan Stanley about 8 years ago and Merrill naturally wanted to keep a 7 figure account. I almost laughed out loud at their senior broker when I saw his face fall after I told him that I had had an account with Morgan Stanley for even longer than my account with him.



  • When it crashed in 2000, I was invested in high growth/high risk holdings. I just did not think they would crash 75% in a matter of days.

    In 2007/8, it was more conservative and more diversified. I screwed up by getting skeered and pulling out after the crash, just before a bump. Got back in somewhere around the middle of 2009?.

    Now I'm even more conservatively invested, but most is in the S&P with the rest in lower growth/lower risk assets.



  • I made numerous stupid mistakes in the stock market in the 1990’s, but like most investors then, I made money in spite of my stupidity. From 2000 to 2002 I lost 28.65% in the market. After that beating, I still had money to invest, but it went into low annual cost Vanguard mutual funds.

    The stock market is going to crash again & those who think they know when it going to happen & then convert to cash, usually have some problems.

    1. If you convert gains to cash, you owe taxes on those gains, however increases in a stock's price are not taxable until you sell it. Of course, if a stock or mutual fund pays dividends, you will owe taxes on those dividends.

    2. Once you convert to cash, trying to time when to get back into the stock market can be tricky at best, & often creates fears that keep investors out of the market.

    When the 2008 major recession hit, I just happened to have sold a mutual fund that was about 8% of our portfolio, at a high point. I sold due to pure dumb luck & a little nervousness on my part. However, we rode the rest of our investments down with the plunging market, except for a bank stock, that simply went out of business & another we sold. Our 30% bonds 70% stocks portfolio lost 30.65% in 2008, which hurt, but we stayed fully invested, despite the panic & started buying more stocks by Feb. 2009. We were back to even by the end of 2010, just two years for a full recovery of our portfolio.

    Since then, we have made money with a pretty conservative portfolio of mostly Vanguard stock & bond mutual funds, during every year, except for 2015 & 2018, when we had slight losses.

    Currently, our average yearly gain in the stock & bond market since 1996, when I started tracking it, is 8.85%. The average annual return for the S&P 500 index, which most professional investors favor over the Dow Jones index, appears to be 8.601% for the same period. I am amazed that I have blundered my way to actually beating that index for the last 24 years.

    Please bear in mind, we have enjoyed fairly low inflation rates since 1996. The average annual U.S. inflation for that period is 2.17%. That inflation rate, however, is far more than CD’s, money market funds, or Treasury bonds currently pay.



  • I've had good results by not making big moves. I generally go for round lots and have never bought or sold more than a thousand shares of anything.

    The problem is that it is difficult to navigate unknown waters by looking backwards, but I try to pick up on cues. For example when PG&E said that they would have outages to prevent fires I immediately bought shares in a company that makes generators because I knew that shortly people would be spending like $500 just to overnight a generator from some east coast Home Depot.



  • @FritzRay said in SKEERED:

    The stock market is going to crash again & those who think they know when it going to happen & then convert to cash, usually have some problems.

    Timing the market is a fools game.

    I'm just at the point where a reduction in gains (cash, bonds, etc.) seems more attractive than another major loss. Even a 30% loss would be a big hit. I'm not fat, just have enough to live reasonably; losing a significant portion would be life changing.



  • Bought another 100 shares of Boeing at $314

    20% of the market is reason and the rest is emotion.

    They have to get ALL the pilots through scarce simulators.

    But once the fix is in and the CEO takes his entire family for a flight I think that the 5+ years worth of back orders will encourage investment and it could go over $500 before 2022.

    Think I'm crazy?

    Go back and look at my prediction on 2/14/18 on the skeered thread.
    The Dow was at 24893 and I said it could hit 30K by 2020

    This week it briefly went over 29,300
    I may be off by less than a month yet.



  • The stock market enjoyed a fairly large drop today, which pundits are blaming on fears of the Corona Virus outbreak & its possible effects on the world economy. I was curious about what previous disease outbreaks had done to markets & found various articles online. This one had a little more hard information than most.

    Epidemic & 12-month % change of S&P 500 Index
    HIV/AIDS June 1981 -10.73%
    SARS April 2003 +20.76%
    Avian flu June 2006 +18.36%
    Swine flu April 2009 +25.96%
    Ebola March 2014 +10.44%

    Thanks to Market Watch https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-the-stock-market-has-performed-during-past-viral-outbreaks-as-chinas-coronavirus-spreads-2020-01-22



  • Thinking multifactorially mind you

    What else was happening?



  • @zBrown! I don't remember any great problems during those years noted. Per this graph of the S&P 500 Index during those years, the big dips were 2001 - 2003 & 2008. There is always a reason for a stock market sell-off, but sometimes those reasons seem slightly arcane to those of us not tuned-in.

    Market 1980 - 2014.JPG



  • Well this was a rough week, but I didn't lock in any losses.

    In the end though, without a serious pandemic, man will destroy the biosphere.



  • U.S. stock markets were down sharply last week due to fears of the Corona virus & what it might do to world economies. Per this report this morning, I'm starting to think the pessimists may have it right?

    "But the toll keeps mounting at an ever-increasing pace, with health authorities on Saturday saying 46 more people had died in the preceding 24 hours, all but one in Hubei Province, China.
    Another 2,102 new infections were also confirmed, bringing the total to nearly 12,000 -- far higher than the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak of 2002-03.
    SARS, which is caused by a pathogen similar to the new coronavirus and also originated in China, killed 774 people worldwide -- most of them in mainland China and Hong Kong.
    The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak a global emergency on Thursday but later warned that closing borders was probably ineffective in halting transmission and could accelerate the virus's spread."
    https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-isolation-grows-virus-toll-reaches-259-035414994.html





  • Long term investment: undeveloped real estate. Preferably in low property tax bracket. Then think decades... 🥃



  • Well my Sprint nearly doubled today so I sold.

    The people that shorted Tesla aren't licking their wounds. They are dealing with the stumps of amputated limbs. Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered.



  • @Toker-V Yeah? I have some long held S that I maybe should exit. Thx.

    Edit: Ah, I see, merger w/T actually approved. Mind numbing.



  • Hell of a morning to sleep in. I'm down 6 figures but not selling (well actually just sold some bonds that gave me 17% in 11 months) but I'm waiting for the verdict on coronavirus before looking for bargains.



  • I follow @DrDenaGrayson on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson
    She worked on developing treatment for Ebola, and has been warning of pandemic since the outbreak began. If you want a crash course about the topic, she may be a good resource for you.

    With factories being closed in China, and as it spreads, it could get.....bad, economically speaking. But what the hell - playing the stock market is game for big boys and girls, right? Too bad it affects everyone else whether they consume the delicious poison or not.

    My jewelry sales seem to have tanked since about November, in this fantastic economy. Me - I need a set of tires, pronto. I thought the tires I had (bought 2018 in late summer/autumn) would get me through this trip and back to NY, but such is not the case. Stock market is so far out of my current realm I can't imagine being in a skeered position over it, but from my own viewpoint, I think people should be skeered. Be very, very skeered.....



  • As always, we are living in "interesting times."

    The S&P 500′s two-day loss of 6.3% was the largest since August 2015, when the Chinese government devalued their currency.

    I didn't sell, but I did listen to some market pundits on the radio this afternoon. They ain't buying either, & the old analogy of buying into a plummeting stock market, is like trying to catch a falling knife, was of course mentioned.

    When do the stock markets bottom?

    They always bottom, but that is the very tricky part about "market-timing."



  • S closed at $9.64. 💹 Still holding. If for no other reason than amusement value.



  • (Edited)

    An..interesting....graphic graph comparing Coronavirus numbers to SARS, Ebola, and others day by day since outbreak. Keep in mind Coronavirus can have several weeks from infection to symptoms.....
    https://twitter.com/WelshGasDoc/status/1232208118899257344


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